Key Takeaways
- The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to its lowest level since March on Wednesday morning.
- Treasury yields have steadily fallen in the last week as markets have digested economic data suggesting the U.S. economy remains relatively healthy despite a cooling job market.
- Wall Street on Wednesday was focused on whether the Federal Reserve would signal whether it will start cutting interest rates in September, as markets expect.
Treasury yields declined as markets waited to see how clearly the Federal Reserve, which concludes its July policy meeting this afternoon, would signal its next move on interest rates.
The yield on the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:10-year note, which reflects investors’ expectations for long-term interest rates, dipped below 4.1% for the first time since March before reboundin𒆙g slightly on Wednesday morning.
Treasury yields have declined precipitously in the last week as investors have ramped up bets that the Fed will begin a long-awaited rate cut campaign i𒁏n September.
Economic data in recent weeks have painted a picture of a cooling, but not ailing, economy. 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Hiring slowed and 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:inflation declined in June, but the U.S. economy 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:grew faster in the second quarter than it did in the first.
The latest data has helped convince many on Wall Street that the U.S. economy is indeed on track to achieve the elusive soft landing. Traders, in turn, are predicting the Fed will soon unwind its most aggressive rate hike campaign in decades. Federal funds rate futures trading data implies markets see an interest rate cut by September as certain.
Wall Street seems to expect the Fed’s rate cuts to be nearly as aggressive as their hikes. Data suggests traders are forecasting the Fed will slash interest rates 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:by 1.75 percentage points between now and September 2025.