Global gold prices have touched record highꦛs this month, extending a year-end rally that could continue if the U.S. economy slows as expected, the World Gold Council said in a reღport.

In its 2024 outlook, the market development group for the world's gold industry outlined possible scenarios for the global economy in the year ahead. The most probable outcomes—either a soft economic landing or a recession—each would support gold prices moving higher.

Regardless of which proves correct, uncertainty in the interim should underpin demand for gold. That's particularly true amid heightened global tensions as elections loom in the U.S. and other leading economies, and as investors contemplate potential 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

"This should encourage many investors to hold effective hedges, such as gold, in their portfolios," the council sa𓄧id.

Can Gold's Recent Surge Last?

The forec🌠ast suggests the recent surge in gold prices may h෴ave staying power.

Gold prices, based on 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:futures contracts for December delivery, reached an all-time high of $2,071 per troy ounce on Dec. 1, and have advanced for seven of the past eight weeks. Year-to-date, gold prices have risen 12%.

The council outlined three possible economic scenarios for next year. Just one of those—economic expansion without a slowdown in growth—might place downward pressure on gold prices, it predicted. And it only sees a 5% t🔯o 10% ch🍬ance of that scenario playing out.

Far more likely, the report stated, are either a soft economic landing, characterized by slowing but continued economic growth, or a 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:hard landing with a recession.

With 45% to 65% possibility predicted for a soft landing, the council foresees gold prices staying flat with upside potential. If the latter scenario, given odds of 25-55% by the council, happens, gold prices would rise "notably higher," it said.

"Every Cycle is Different"

The report conceded that soft landings traditionally "have not been particularly attractive for gold," typically🤡 producing flat to slightly lower returns.

However, it cautioned that 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:every cycle is different and a combination of factors such as "heightened geopolitical tensions in a key election year for many major economies, combined with continued 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:central bank buying" could continue to prop up gold prices.

"Further, the likelihood of the Fed steering the U.S. economy to a safe landing with interest rates above 5% is by no means certain," the report said.

Gold prices this year indeed have benefited from continued purchases by central banks. As with many investors, they've increasingly turned to gold as an 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:inflation hedge in the past two years.

Through the third quarter, central banks year-to-date bought 800 metric tons of gold. That represented a 14% increase from the same period last year, when annual central bank purchases ultimately reached 1,081 metric tons: more than double the previous full year.

澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Inflation has moderated in most global economies, and investors increasingly anticipate tꦜh🌌e Fed will cut interest rates in the first half of 2024.

Lower rates likely would push bond yields lower. Falling bond yields in recent weeks actually have helped fuel gold's rally, as lower yields have reduced the attractiveness of bonds as a 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:safe haven for investors worried about the economy.