Moms Took The Brunt Of Pandemic-Related Job Losses, Study Shows

When the pandemic hit, women—especially women of color and moms—were the first to lose jobs, and th꧃e slowest to get them back.

That’s according to a report by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, who🐼 analyzed census data about employment, race, and gender and published their findings late last year. The fact that mꩲothers were especially hard hit points to problems finding child care as a likely reason for the slower recovery of women’s jobs, the bank said in a blog post Tuesday.

The report adds to the pile of research showing in various ways that women took the biggest economic hit when COVID-19 struck. The phenomenon, which was dubbed the “she-cession” at the time, is at least partly because women often have more childcare responsibilities than men, and have to deal with school closures and other disruptions of childcare services.

Absolute Debt Levels in the Country Could Be Deceptive

It seems like debt—on the personal, business andꦗ government front—is soaring.

澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网: But is it?

Dollar values can be misleading, according to economists: Inflation, a growing population, and an expanding economy often necessitate that dollar totals rise over time. However, when compared to the country’s economic output, debt levels haven't risen steeply.

“Larger economies should be able to sustain higher amounts of debt, everything else equal,” Wells Fargo economists Jay H. Bryson and Delaney Conner wrote in a recent commentary. 

Read more about how much debt Americans are in here.

Economist Say Inflation May Be Stickier Than Investors Expected

While investors have seemingly been fairly certain about inflation's path ahead, economists said Tuesday's report could throw some cold water on their optimism.

The consumer price index report showed inflation was more stubborn than economists and 🍌investors expec🎃ted in January. Economists said it calls into question investor's forecasts for rate cuts earlier in the year.

"The data really put a dent in the moderating inflation narrative that has taken hold in the markets and among some Fed officials," wrote BMO's Chief U.S. Economist Scott Anderson.

There are still two more CPI reports before the Federal Open Markets Committee meets in May when many forecasters are expecting the first cut. However, Tuesday's report reaffirmed that the trend has not been linear in recent months and may not be moving forward, some economists said.

"Today's report is a reminder that the road back to 2% inflation likely will have some potholes, and it reinforces the hawks on the FOMC who have expressed skepticism that an imminent easing of policy is warranted," wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese.

How Bad Is Inflation? Depends On How You Measure It

If you’ve felt a sense of whiplash reading about inflation’s descent, it’s not just your imagination: One report says it’s tame, while the next shows it running hotter than expected, often when describing the same month.

That’s partly because the government’s two main measures of inflation— Personal Consumption Expenditures, creꦿa꧙ted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the more widely watched Consumer Price Index, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics—have been telling different stories lately.

The two indexes usually track one another, but lately, the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:🌟PCE has been showing much less inflation than the CPI.

One of the big reasons for the divergence is that the CPI is more influenced by housing costs, which have been increasing rapidly, at least according to the government’s official measures. Two-thirds of 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:January’s stubborn inflation increase in the CPI was because of shelter costs, the BLS said.

Some economists have taken the most recent CPI report with a grain of salt because government data on rent tends to lag behind other measures of shelter costs, such as Zillow’s observed rent index, which has shown rent increases slowing dramatically since 2022.

Inflation, Poor Sales Expectations Drive Down Small Business Sentiment

Still bothered by inflation and facing fizzling sales expectations, small business owner sentiment stepped back in Janu💟ary.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) monthly Small Business Optimism Index fell two points in January to hit 89.9, marking 25 straight months the index has come in lower than the 50-year average. The reading comes after the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:index reached a five-month high in December. 

“In January, optimi🅠sm among small business owners dropped as inflatဣion remains a key obstacle on Main Street,”  said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

The sales outlook for small businesses soured, with the survey showing a 12 percentage po🐼int drop in the percentage of owners who expe🌠cted sales to be higher over the next three months.

The survey also showed that only 30% reported positive earnings trends, a 5-point drop from December, while another 14%🐠 of small business owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, the fewest 𓆏giving this response since May 2020.

The survey showed that 20% of owners still see inflation as the most important problem facing their small business, declining from las💟t month and now just one point higher than labor quality.

-Terry Lane

Investors Lose Hope That Fed Will Cut Interest Rates in May After CPI

Market expectations that🅠 the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates fell sharply after CPI data for January showed that price pressures eased but noℱt as much as economists had expected.

About 30 minutes after the release of the data, market participants were pricing in just a 38% chance that the Fed would start cutting rates at its May monetary policy meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts interest rate movements based on 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:fed fund futures trading data.

Just before the release, the likelihood of a May cut was priced ဣin at 57%.

Housing Costs Drive Persistent Inflation

Shelter inflation, which measures the change in pr𒁏ice for housing units, was a driving factor in overall inflation in January.

Housing prices as measured by the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% over the prior month, accounting for more than two-thirds of the increase in all items for the month. Shelter inflation gr♎ew 6% from the same time last year.

Shelter is one of the largest parts of the "澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:basket of goods" that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to calculate inflation because it's often the largest expense for households. However, it is measured primaﷺrily based on rental prices.

The bureau measures the actual rental prices and uses that data to estimate how much owner-occupied houses would rent for if they were put on the market. That measure is called 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Owners’ Equivalent Rent (O𝓡ER) and often lags behind movements i💞n nationwide home prices by about a year.

Read more about OER here.

CPI Up 3.1% Year-Over-Year

Inflation grew slower than in the prior month, according to Tuesday's 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Consumer Price Index report.

Inflation grew at a rate of 3.1% year-over-year in January, less than the 3.4% in December and the lowest rate since June. Economists expected CPI to come in at 2.9% year-over-year, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones and the Wall Street Journal.

Prices grew 0.3% from Decemb�✨�er, the same as the prior month.

Shelter continued to be a driving factor in inflation, accounting for more than two-thirds of the monthly total increase🐈.

Economists and investors have been keeping a close eye on inflation in hopes that the Federal Reserve will find the "confidence" that they say they're looking for that prices are stabilizing sustainably.

Read more about Tuesday's inflation report here.

A previous version of this blog entry incorrectly stated the historical pattern. Inflation was the lowest since June.