Measure of Economy Growth Expected to Grow More Slowly Than Last Quarter

The U.S. economy has defied expectations that it would slow down under the weight of high interest rates, and Thursday's government report on gross domestic product (GDP) will show whether it's continuing to defy gravity.

The real GDP—an inflation-adjusted measure of the country’s economic output compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis—is expected to have grown at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first quarter, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

 That would be a slowdown from the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:3.4% growth rate in theღ fourth qua💦rter and below the 2.4% average annual rate i𒆙n the 10 years leading up to the pandemic.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDP Now tracker, which projects the growth rate based on data as it comes in,🗹 predicts a 2.7% pace. 

Aircraft Orders Provide Lift to March Durable Goods 

For the second straight month, a jump in transportation equipment sales drove U.S. 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:durable goods orders higher in March. However, 🍌economists said a closer look at t🔜he numbers shows underlying weaknesses in some areas of the economy.

Largely fueled by aircraft sales, durable goods increased 2.6%, or $283.4 billion in March, according to Census Bureau data released today. The data was in line with expectations from economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires

澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:❀Durable goods orders have increased over the past two months, led mostly by a surge in🌄 transportation orders.

“Aircraft orders, which leaped 30% in March for nondefense orders, are notoriously volatile on a month-to-month basis, and the size of the expenditure causes it to have a large bearing on overall orders activity,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Shann🐼on Seery Grein and Tim Quinlan. 

Excluding transportation equipment, durable goods orders were higher꧃ by 0.2%, showing spending on equipment heavy equipment outside of transportation may be cooling. 

“Not-so-encouraging news from the durable goods front dampens hope of an acceleration in equipment spending. This continues to be a soft spot in an otherwise strong eco꧅nomy,” writes Nationwide Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin.

The data points to a continued slump in business spending on equipment, which is set t๊o drop as much as 2.7% in the 202🌼4 first quarter, the sharpest decline since 2021, wrote Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. 

-Terry Lane

Mortgage Rate Jump Pushes Demand Lower

Mortgage applications dipped lower last week as 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:mortgage rates reached highs not seen since late 2023.

An index measure the number of mortgage applications fell 2.7% last week, according to data from the Mor☂tgage Bankers Association. Mortgage rate increases caught up with potential home buyers after demand for mortgages gained for the two consecutive weeks prior.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased for the third straight week, moving up to 7.24%, its highest level since November, according to MBA's calculations. As a result, loans for home purchases were lower by 1% and refinancing loans were lower by 6%.

“Purchase applications declined, as home buyers delayed their purchase decisions due to strained aff𝓰ordability and low supply,” said Joel Kan, MBA vice president and d🎃eputy chief economist.

With markets losing confidence that the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Federal Reserve can follow through with plans for interest rate cuts, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:mortgage rates have moved up in recent weeks after falling below the 7% threshold 🐼earlier๊ this year. 

-Terry Lane