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Shopping Surged in January, Defying Inflation and The Fed

Retail sales rose unexpectedly by 3%

A couple look at a tablet being held by a car salesman inside a dealership.

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Key Takeaways

  • Retail sales jumped 3% in January, more than economists had expected, indicating the economy is avoiding a recession at least in the short term.
  • Sales rose across almost every category of retailer, led by department stores and restaurants.
  • Economists cautioned that good weather may have helped push people to stores, and February could see a backslide.

If consumer𒁏s are feeling the financial pressure from rapid inflation and surging interest rates for loans, they shrugged it off in January and ramped up their spending. 

Retail sales surged 3% in January compared to December, as people spent more at all kinds of retailers, the Census Bureau said Wednesday. Spending rose in nearly every category, especially department stores, which surged 17.5%, and restaurants, which jumped 7.2%, with only gas station sales remaining flat. Overall, sales were up 6.4% compared to January 2022.

Consumers are still willing to open their wallets, the report shows, even under intense pressure from unusually high inflation that is running at 6.4% annually. The Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb inflation—which has involved 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:jacking up interest rates, affecting ꦏ澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:consume🦩r debt like credit cards and car loans—hasn’t put a damper on spending either. January’s sales figures, which exceeded the 1.9% median forecast from economists, bounced back from 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:slumping sales in November and December, indicating the economy is resisting a long-predicted recession, at least for the moment.

Taken together with the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:job market’s stro🔜ng showing in January, the resilience of retail sales “suggests the economy will easily avoid a recession iꦫn the first quarter,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, s𓆏aid in a commentary.  

However, many economists found reason to be skeptical that January’s sales boom represents the beginning of a sustained trend rather than just a blip. The U.S. saw unusually warm weather in January, with the temperature nationwide averaging 5.1 degrees above average. That helped boost sa❀les, especially at car dealerships.

“Warm weather encouraged people to go out and spend after harsh conditions depressed activity in December,” James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, said in a commentary. “Household incomes remain under pressure and with weather patterns normalizing a correction is likely in February.”

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  1. Census Bureau. "."

  2. MarketWatch. ""

  3. National Centers for Environmental Information. "."

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