澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网

Meeting Minutes Confirm Fed Really Is Stumped About The Economy's Future

United States Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent (L) and Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States Jerome Powell (R), arrive ahead of the family photo at the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting in Banff, Alberta, Canada, on May 21, 2025.

Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • Members of the Federal Open Market Committee grappled with uncertainty about trade policy and the trajectory of the economy ahead of their decision to keep interest rates steady in May, meeting minutes revealed.
  • The meeting notes released Wednesday echoed public comments by Fed officials in recent weeks.
  • Fed officials are waiting to see what tariffs President Donald Trump will impose, and how they'll affect inflation and unemployment.

Behind the scenes, officials at the Federal Reserve were just as uncertain about the economy's trajectory as they were in public, meeting minutes confirm.

Notes from the Federal Open Market Committee May meeting were released Wednesday. The minutes showed officials grappling with a multitude of uncertainties about President Donald Trump's tariffs and their effects on the economy. Ultimately, the committee's 12 members 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:voted unanimously to keep the central bank's key 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:federal funds rate steady, as widely expected by financial markets.

"Participants observed that there was considerable uncertainty surrounding the evolution of trade policy as well as about the scale, scope, timing, and persistence of associated economic effects," the minutes said. "Significant uncertainties also surrounded changes in fiscal, regulatory, and immigration policies and their economic effects. Taken together, participants saw the uncertainty about their economic outlooks as unusually elevated."

The emphasis on "uncertainty" echoed comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a press conference after the decision earlier this month, as well as speeches b🌜y F🐲ed officials in subsequent weeks.

Fed policymakers have taken a cautious approach while waiting to see how Trump's unprecedented and unpredictable tariff campaign will affect the central bank's dual goals of keeping inflation and unemployment under control. Fed officials and other experts have voiced concerns that the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:import taxes will push up inflati✃on and, at the same time, slow the economy, threatening job growth and spurring unemployment.

The two potential problems would 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:require opposite responses from the FOMC: surging inflation could pressure the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer, while a spike in unemployment would strengthen the case for cutting interest rates in an effort to boost the economy.

Given the potential dilemma, the behind-the-scenes notes were no surprise to Fed watchers.

"These minutes tell us little we did not already know about the Fed’s latest thinking, set out at Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference, and the raft of speeches from other FOMC members in recent weeks," Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a commentary. "Intense uncertainty around trade policy, threats to both the Fed’s employment and inflation goals, and the question of which side of the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:dual mandate faces the higher medium-term risks, are all encouraging the FOMC to sit tight and wait for more information."

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