With the new year comes a crop of new economic projections, as analysts examined data and😼 trends in an effor🐎t to lay out an economic roadmap for the upcoming year. 

Economists expect the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:economy to grow, unemployment to 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:remain at bay, and interest rates to 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:stabilize. However, according to a new report by the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the specif♋ic rates at which th🍌ese economic factors change will likely deviate from projections.

“Measuring the current state of the economy is difficult because data are backward-looking and often revised. As a result, economic forecasts are frequently wrong,” wrote economists Charles Gascon and Joseph Martorana.

For example, economists' consensus forecast a 1.3% growth in 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:gross domestic product (GDP) over 2024. While the fourth quarter's results haven't been released yet, Gasco⛎n and Martorana said the reality will likely be more than double that.

How Have Forecasters Fared in the Past?

The🙈 study examined how accurate the forecasts were likely to be over the three-decade period starting in 1993.꧋

Over that time, forecasters' estimates for GDP were off by as much as a full percentage point. For unemployment, researchers were on average, off by a half-percentage point and missed the mark on inflation by as much as 0.7 percentage points.  

Analysts were also more likely to deliver biased results when🍎 forecasting the bond market. Economists consistently 🐲underestimated Treasury yield levels by nearly half a percentage point.