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Aviation Analyst Sees Long-Term 'Demand Destruction' From Trump Tariffs

Delta Airlines boarding gate area at Newark Liberty International Airport.

Alexander Shapovalov / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • President Trump's tariff policies "will negatively impact commercial aviation," an industry analyst said.
  • International travelers visiting the U.S. are down 10% worldwide, Visual Approach Analytics said.
  • Delta "will defer any deliveries that have a tariff," CEO Ed Bastian said Wednesday.

An aviation industry analyst believes air travel could face "demand destruction" as a result of the Trump administration's tariff policies

Visual Approach Analytics said Thursday the White House's "deep step toward deglobalization will negatively impact commercial aviation, which is built to connect the globe." Demand has 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:already begun to soften, with international travelers visiting the U.S. down 25% from Canada and Mexico, and an estimated 10% worldwide, the firm added. "We believe the threat to aviation is in demand destruction,𒈔 a long-term impact largely dependent upon economic scenarios," it said.

In the short term, this could benefit U.S. airlines, which have a relative point-of-sale advantage, Visual Approach said. 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Delta Air Lines (DAL),🍸 for instance, said on its first-quarter earnings call Wednesday that it has seen strong summer bookin⛦gs, according to a transcript provided by AlphaSense.

Delta 'Will Defer Any Deliveries That Have a Tariff'

In the longer-term, however, growth is likely to fall, the analyst said. With tariffs in place, aircraft made for American carriers outside the U.S. are "likely to be parked," VAA said, adding that "the incentive for the U.S. airlines is to stall for time while the uncertainty is eventually resolved." Delta CEO Ed Bastian said on the earnings call that the carrier no 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:longer envisions growing this year and "will defer any🌼 d꧑eliveries that have a tariff."

Shares of Delta sank 11% in recent trading, while rivals American Airlines (AAL), United Airlines (UAL) and Southwest (LUV) dropped 13%, 12%, and 10%, respectively, amid a broad market sell-off.

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  1. Visual Appr𝓡oach Analytics. “What tariffs mean for aviation.”

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