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October: The Month of Market Crashes?

Part of the Series
Guide to Stock Market Crashes
Stock market crash chart on Halloween pumpkin.

 

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October has a special place in finance—called the October effect, it's one of the most feared months in the financial calendar. The events that have given October a bad name span over 100 years.

Here's a look at whether there's any merit behind the fear of October.

Key Takeaways

  • The October effect is the widespread belief that financial declines and stock market crashes are more likely to occur during October than any other month.
  • The Bank Panic of 1907, the Stock Market Crash of 1929, and Black Monday 1987 all happened during the month of October.
  • Historically, September has had more down markets than October.
  • The effect that causes some traders to blame October for stock market declines may provide buying opportunities for contrarian investors.

The Bank Panic of 1907

In October 1907, a financial panic threaten൩ed to engulf Wall Street, most༒ly owing to threats of legislative action against trusts and shrinking credit. The panic stretched for six weeks.

During this time, there were multiple bank runs and heavy panic selling at the stock exchange. All that stood between the U.S. and a serious crash was a J.P. Morgan-led consortium that did the work of the Federal Reserve before it existed. The consortium provided the funds necessaಌry to stabilize various banks and e♈ven the city of New York.

Stock Market Crash of 1929

澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:The Crash of 1929, which began on Oct. 24, was a financial bloodletting on an u🐻nprecedented scale because so many people had money invested in the market. It left several "black" days in the history books, each with its own record-breaking market slide. This crash was one of several causes of t♎he Great Depression.

Fast Fact

The Panic of 1907 led to the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which established the Federal Reserve Board and the 12 Federal Reserve Banks as "lenders of last resort."

Black Monday

Nothing says Monday like a financial meltdown and an unexpected stock market crash. On Oct. 19, 1987—the day that historians refer to as Black Monday—automatic stop-loss orders and financial contagion gave the market a thorough throttling as a domino effect echoed across the world. The Federal Reserve and other central banks intervened, and the Dow recovered from the 22% drop quite rapidly.

September Is Guilty Also

Oddly enough, September, not October, has mor༺e historical down markets. Notably, the catalysts that set off the 1907 panic an🥂d the 1929 crash happened in September or earlier, and the reaction was simply delayed.

In 1907, the panic nearly occurred in March and, with the tension building over the fate of trust companies, could have🍷 happened in almost any month. The 1929 crash arguably began when the Fed banned margin-trading loans in February and cranked up interest rates.

Taken as a whole, a very strong argument can be made for September being worse for the markets than October, as you can see below from the number of "Black Days" occurring in the month.

The Original "Black Day"

Most Americans associate Black Friday with the day after the Thanksgiving holiday when retailers offer huge discounts and consumers kick off their holiday shopping. But the original Black Friday on September 24, 1869, was anything but festive. Jay Gould and other speculators tried to corner the gold market, working with an insider at the Treasury. The price kept rising until the Treasury broke the corner by selling $4 million in government gold, dropping the price of gold by $27 in a single day, sparking a catastrophic crash, and ruining many speculators.

Black Wednesday

澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Black Wednesday occurred on September 16, 1992, when George Soros raided the British pound. This September event is considered infamous by people outside the forex community. However, within the forex community, it's revered as one of the greatest trades ever made. Soros reportedly made a $1 billion profit on the deal, but the British government lost billions trying to shore up its currency, leading up to the eventual capitulation.

September 2001 and 2008

The single-day point declines in the Dow that occurred in September 2001 and 2008 were bigger than those of Black Monday 1987. The first resulted from the attacks on the World Trade Center. The second was tied to the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:subprime mortgage meltdown. The 2008 plunge involved far more than the U.S. economy, trimming $1.2 trillion from the global economy in one day.

An Angel in Disguise

Surprisingly, October has historically heralded the end of more bear markets than the beginning. The fact that🌠 it is viewed negatively may actually make it one of the better buying opportunities for contrarians.

Market slides i🍌n 1987, 1990, 2001, and 2002 turned around in October and began long-term rallies. In particular, Black Monday 1987 was one of the great buying opportunities of🔴 the last 50 years.

Peter Lynch, among others, took this opportunity to load up on solid companies that he'd missed on their way up. When the market recovered, many of these stocks shot up to their previous valuations and a select few went far beyond.

October Effect Unjustified

October gets a bad rap in finance, primarily because so many down days fall in this month. This is a psychological effect rather than anything special about October. The majority of investors have lived through more bad Septembers than Octobers, but the real point is that financial events don't cluster at any given point.

The worst events of the 2008–2009 financial meltdown happened in the spring with the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:collapse of Lehman Brothers. Stocks tend to fall in November and December due to year-end rebalancing and tax optimization (e.g., tax-loss harvesting or charitable donations). Some financially damaging events haven't been given black day status𒐪 simply because the media didn't choose to dust off that moniker at the time.

Although it'd be nice to have financial panics and stock market crashes restrict themselves to one particular month, October is no more prone to bad times than the other 11 months of the year.

Is the October Effect a Real Thing?

The October eff💛ect is a perspective taken by some investors and traders, but it has not been proven tꦗo be a market event that regularly occurs in October.

Is October a Good or Bad Month for Stocks?

Generally, October is not a bad month for the stock market, but some research claims it is during presidential election years.

What Causes the Santa Claus Rally?

The 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Santa Claus rally occurs during the last fi𝔍ve trading days of December. During this period, the S&ඣ;P 500 has gained an average of 1.3% and been positive 79% of the time.

The Bottom Line

While October has had its share of disastrous stock market days, in actuality, negative financial events aren't limited to that month. As it turns out, October is no more of a magnet for market collapses and the onset of crises than any other time of the year. However, the psychological influence of the "October effect" can present investors with choice investment buying opportunities that can pay off later.

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  1. Constitutional Rights Foundation. ""

  2. Federal Reserve History. "."

  3. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. "."

  4. The Economics Review at New York University. "."

  5. The New York Times. "."

  6. MarketWatch. "."

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Part of the Series
Guide to Stock Market Crashes

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