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Hedge Your Bets With Inflation-Indexed Bonds

Part of the Series
Guide to Fixed Income

Inflation can have a dampening effect on fixed-income investments by reducing their purchasing power and cutting their real returns over time. This happens even if the inflation rate is relativelജy low. If you have a portfolio that returns 9% and the inflation rate is 3%, then your real returns are about 6%.

Inflation-index-linked bonds can help to hedge against inflation risk because they increase in value during inflationary periods. The United States, India, Canada, and a wide range of other countries issue🎃 inflation-link♊ed bonds. Because they reduce uncertainty, inflation-indexed bonds are a popular long-range planning investment vehicle for individuals and institutions alike.

Key Takeaways

  • Inflation-index-linked bonds can help to hedge against inflation risk because they increase in value during inflationary periods.
  • The United States, India, Canada, and a wide range of other countries issue inflation-linked bonds.
  • TIPS and many of their global inflation-linked counterparts do not offer very good protection during times of deflation.
  • An additional upside of inflation-linked bonds is that their returns do not correlate with those of stocks or with other fixed-income assets.

How Inflation-Linked Bonds Work

Inflation-linked bonds are tied to the costs of consumer goods as measured by an inflation index, such as the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:consumer price index (CPI). Each country has its own method of calculating those co♛sts on a regular basis. In addition, each nation has its own agency responsible for issuing inflation-linked bonds. For instance:

The outstanding principal of the bond generally rises with inflation for i🐠nflation-linked bonds. So, the face or par value of the bond increases when inflation occurs. This is in contrast🍃 to other types of securities, which often decrease in value when inflation rises.

The interest paid out by inflation-linked bonds is also adjusted for inflation. By providing these features, inflation-linked bonds can soften the real impact of inflation on 🔜the holders of the bonds.

History of Inflation-Linked Bonds

Inflation-linked bonds were developed during the American Revolution to combat the corrosive effects of inflation on the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:real value of consumer goods. Massachusetts issued inflation-indexed bonds beginning in 1780, but inflation indexing seemed unnecessary for established countries on the gold standard.

Most of the world abandoned the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:gold standard by the 1970s, and rising inflation created a demand for inflation-linked bonds. In 1981, the U.K. began to issue the first modern inflation-linked bonds, or linkers as they are often called.

Other countries followed suit, including Sweden, Canada, and Australia. The U.S. Treasury did not issue inflation-indexed bonds until 1997, and India issued capital-indexed bonds that same year; however, India did not issue fully inflation-indexed bonds, which protect both coupons and principal from inflation, until 2013.

Important

Fitch Ratings downgraded the rating for the U.S. from AAA to AA+ in Aug. 2023. The credit rating agency stated that concerns about the country's "fiscal deterioration" over the next three years and its high national debt caused by tax cuts and increased government spending were among the reasons for the drop.

Risks of Inflation-Linked Bonds

While inflation-linked bonds have considerable u⛄pside potential, there are also certain risks associated with these assets.

Values

Their value also tends to fluctuate with the rise and fall of interest rates. TIPS and many of their global inflation-linked counterparts do not offer very good protection during times of deflation, which is when prices decline. The U.S. Treasury sets an initial floor for TIPS at par value.

However, the risk is still considerable because there are older TIPS issues that carry years of inflation-adjusted accruals, which can be lost to 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:deflation. This deflation risk caused TIPS to underperform other Treasury bonds during 2008.

Trading and Taxation

This asset type also presents complications in trading and taxation that don't affect other fixed-income asset classes. This is mostly because inflation-linked bonds have two values: the original face value of the bond and the current value adjusted for inflation.

The adjustments of the principal amount are considered annual income for tax purposes. However, investors do not actually receive the adjustments in that year. Instead, they get the larger coupon payments and only receive inflation-augmented principal when the bond matures. Thus, investors may be subject to tax on what's known as 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:phantom income.

What Are Inflation-Linked Bonds?

Inflation-linked bonds are fixed-income assets that are designed 🗹to protect investors from inflation. Generally offered by federal governments, these assets are indexed to inflation. This means they are tied to inflation so the principal investment and interest portion both rise and fall with the inflation rate. In many cases, they are tied to the price index of consumer goods and services. For instance, those issued by the U.S. government are tied to the Consumer Price Index.

How Risky Are Inflation-Linked Bonds?

Bonds that are linked to inflation are usually offered by federal governments. These fixed-income investments offer investors protection against inflation because they are indexed to inflation. As such, the principal and interest rises and falls with the inflation rate. Although they provide some safety, there are certain risks associated with inflation-linked bonds. For instance, investors are subject to interest rate risk. They must also consider deflation risk since these bonds are tied to the CPI in the U.S.

What Is the Current Rate for Inflation Bonds?

The current rate for I bonds issued between May 1, 2023, and Oct. 31, 2023, is 4.30%. This rate includes a fixed rate of 0.90%.

The Bottom Line

Despite their complicated nature and potential downside in deflationary periods, inflation-ꦍlinked bonds are still enormously popular. T﷽hey are the most trusted investment vehicle to hedge against short-term inflation. The corrosive effect that inflation can have on returns is a strong motivating factor behind the popularity of these bonds.

An additional upside of inflation-linked bonds is that their returns do not correlate with those of stocks or with other fixed-income assets. Inflation-linked bonds are a hedge agai༒nst inflation, and they also help to provide diversification in a bal𝕴anced portfolio.

Article Sources
Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts. We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our editorial policy.
  1. TreasuryDirect. "."

  2. United Kingdom Debt Management Office. "."

  3. Bank of Canada. "."

  4. Reserve Bank of India. "."

  5. Shiller, Robert J. "." National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Pape🌸r No. 10183, December 2003, JEL No. E31, pp. 3ꦿ.

  6. Congressional Research Service. "," Pages 12-13.

  7. United Kingdom Debt Management Office. "."

  8. Shiller, Robert J. "." National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 10183, Decem𝓡ber 2003, JEL No. E31, pp. 4-5.

  9. Fitch Ratings. "."

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  11. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. "."

  12. TreasuryDirect. "."

Part of the Series
Guide to Fixed Income

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