The yield curve shows the difference in the short- and long-term interest rates of bonds and other fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. An inverted yield curve occurs when 🐼short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates.

An inverted yield curve is a noteworthy and uncommon event. Under normal circumstances, the yield curve is not inverted. Debts with longer maturities t☂ypically pay higher interest rates than shorter-term one💞s.

From an economic perspective, an inverted yield curve suggests th﷽at the near♚ term is riskier than the long term.

Interest Rates and Yield Curves

Typically, short-term interest rates are lower than long-term rates. The yield curve slopes upwards, reflecting higher yields for longer-term investments. This is referred to as a 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:normal yield curve.

When the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates narrows, the yield curve begins to flatten. A 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:flat yield curve caဣn be a transition from a normal yield curve to an inverted one.

What Does an Inverted Yield Curve Suggest?

Historically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending economic recession. When short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:market sentiment suggests that the long-term outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:fixed income will continue to fall.

More recently, this viewpoint has been called into question, as foreign purchases of securities issued by the U.S. Treasury have created a high and sustained level of demand for products backed by U.S. government debt.

When investors are aggressively seeking 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:debt instruments, the debtor can offer lower interest rates. When this occurs, many argue that it is the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:law of supply and demand, rather than impending economic doom that allows lenders to attract bo🍬rrowers without paying higher interest rates.

Inverted yield curves have been relatively rare, due in large part to longer-than-average periods between recessions since the early 1990s. For example, the economic expansions that began in March 1991, November 2001, and June 2009 were three of the four longest economic expansions since World War II.

During these long periods, the question often arises as to whether an invert🥂ed yield curve can happ🌃en again.

澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Economic cycles, regardless of their length, have historically transitioned from growth to recession and back again. Inverted yield curves are an essential element of these cycles, preceding every recession since 1956.

Upward-sloping yield curves are a natural extension of the higher risks associated with long maturities. In a growing economy, investors demand higher yields at the long end of the curve to compensate for the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:opportunity cost of investing in bonds versus other asset classes like stocks, and to maintain an acceptable level over inflation rꦆates.

As an economic cycle begins to slow, the upward slope of the yield curve tends to flatten as short-term rates increase and longer-term yields stay stable or decline slightly. In this environment, investors see long-term yields as an acceptable substitute for the likelihood of lower returns in stocks and🅘 other asset classes, which tend to increase bond prices and reduce yields.

The Formation of an Inverted Yield Curve

As concerns of an impending recession♍ increase, investors tend to buy long Treasury bonds as a safe harbor from falling equities markets. As a result of this rotation to long maturities, yields can fall below short-term rates, forming an inverted yield curve.

Between 1955 and 2018, equities have consistently peaked six times after the start of an inversion, and the economy fell into recession within six to 24 months.

An inverted yield curve appeared in August 2006, as the Fed raised short-term interest rates in response to overheating equity, real estate, and mortgage markets. The inversion of the yield curv▨e preceded the peak of the Standard & Poor’s 500 in October 2007 by 14 months and the of🔯ficial start of the recession in December 2007 by 16 months.

In 2019, the yield curve again inverted, worrying economists about another downturn. In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic did indeed trigger a global recession. No one thought it was likely that the yield curve was able to predict the pandemic. In any case, the COVID-19 downturn quickly rebounded to new record highs.

Inverted Yield Curve Impact on Consumers

An inverted yield curve has an impact on cꦍonꦫsumers.

Homebuyers financing their properties with 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have interest-rate schedules that are periodically updated based on short-term interest rates. When short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, payments on ARMs rise. When this occurs, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:fixed-rate loans can be more at🎃tractive than 𓃲adjustable-rate loans.

澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Lines of credit are also aꦉffected. Consumers must dedicate a larger portion of their incomes toward servicing existing debt. This reduces expendable income and has a negative effect on the economy as a whole.

Inverted Yield Curve Impac🌺t on Fixed-Income Investors

A yield curve inversion has the greatest impact on fixed-inc🌌ome investors.

In normal circumstances, long-term investments have higher yields. Because investors are risking their money for longer periods of time, they are rewarded with higher payouts. An inverted curve eliminates the risk premium for long-term investments, giving investors better returns with 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:short-term investments.

When the spread between U.S. Treasuries (a risk-free investment) and higher-risk corporate alternatives is at historical lows, it is often an easy decision to invest in lower-risk vehicles. In such cases, purchasing a Treasury-backed security provides a yield similar to the yield on 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:junk bonds, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:corporate bonds, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:real estate investment trusts (REITs), and other d🧔ebt instruments, but without the risk inherent in these vehicles.

Money market funds and certificates of d🎃eposit (CDs) may also be attractivꦓe, particularly when a one-year CD is paying yields comparable to those on a 10-year Treasury bond.

Inverted Yield Curve Impact on Stock Investors

When the yield curve becomes inverted, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:profit margins fall for companies 💙that borrow cash at short-term rates and lend at long-term rates, such as community banks. Likewise, hedge funds are often forced to take on increased risk to achieve th♌eir desired level of returns.

In fact, a bad bet on Russian interest rates is largely credited for the demise of 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Long-Term Capital Management, a well-known hedge fund run by bond trader John Meriwether.

Despite their consequences for some parties, yield-curve inversions tend to have less impact on 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:consumer staples and healthcare companies, which 😼are not𝓀 interest-rate dependent.

This relationship becomes clear when an inverted yield curve precedes a recession. When this occurs, investors tend to turn to 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:defensive stocks, such as those in the food, oil, and tobac🅺co industries, which are often less affect🥂ed by downturns in the economy.

• In 2019, the yield curve briefly inverted. Signals of inflationary pressure from a tight labor market and a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve from 2017 to 2019 raised expectations of a recession. Those expectations eventually led the Fed to walk back the interest rate increases. The start of the COVID-19 pandemic, in the Spring of 2020, did lead to a brief recession.
• In 2006, the yield curve was inverted during much of the year. Long-term Treasury bonds went on to outperform stocks during 2007. In 2008, long-term Treasuries soared as the stock market crashed. In this case, the澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网: Great Recession arrived and turned out to be worse than expected.
• In 1998, the yield curve briefly inverted. For a few weeks, Treasury bond prices surged after the Russian debt default. Quick interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve helped to prevent a recession in the United States. However, the Fed's actions may have contributed to the subsequent 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:dotcom bubble.

Explain Like I'm Five

An inverted yield curve happens when short-term Treasury bonds pay a higher interest rate than long-term bonds. That usually means that investors are putting their money into bonds because they don't see better prospects in the near future.

Economists watch out for an inverted yield curve because a recession usually follows. Many loans and credit products are tied to Treasury rates, so an inverted yield curve can have rippling effects throughout the economy.

The Bottom Line

An inverted yield curve means that short-term Treasurys are paying higher interest rates than long-term bonds. Since Treasury rates are a major factor in the cost of borrowing money, an inversion can impact corporate profits and the pric꧅es of other assets.

The yield curve has a solid history of predicting a recession, but it's not foolproof. Like many other economic indicators, yield curves can become self-fulfilling. If enough investors start worrying about a slowdown whenever the yield curve inverts, they could make a recession more likely.