Key Takeaways
- UBS and Mizuho analysts lowered their targets for Tesla on Thursday, citing the potential of tariffs to weaken the broader auto industry.
- Demand for electric vehicles is already soft, and sales may fall an additional 11% in 2025, according to UBS estimates.
- Analysts also pared back their price expectations for General Motors, Rivian, and a number of auto suppliers.
Analysts lowered targets for Tesla on Thursday amidꦫ concerns that tariffs will weaken the broader auto industry.
UBS cut its target price for Tesla (TSLA) to $190, estimating that the electric car manufacturer's 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:vehicle deliveries will fall 11% in 2025. Mizuho analysts said tariffs will increase Tesla prices and erode an already-weakening demand, lowering its target price to $375. A consensus 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:analyst estimate puts Tesla shares somewhere in the middle, at around $327, or nearly 30% above Thursday's closing price, acꦉcording to Visible Alpha.
“While lower estimates for 2025 are now more broadly expected, we♏ believe the whole trajectory of earnings for [Tesla] remains too high...” UBS wrote in a note Thursday, adding that shares will likely “be volatile but downward sloping.”
Tesla shares and the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:broader market have oscillated in recent days amid shifts in U.S. trade policy. 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:CEO Elon Musk’s work slashing government spending has also 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:influenced✅ the car maker's stock prices. Shares ✤finishe﷽d down more than 7% on Thursday but were still up more than 40% from a year earlier.
Although the Trump administration 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:scaled back tariffs this week on a number of U.S. trading partners, goods from China, including car batteries and their components, are subject to 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:tariffs of more than 100%.๊ Import taxes of 25% remain in effect on cars, which will drive up prices, deter consumers, and potentially reduce Tesla’s 2025 U.S. revenue by 3.5%, Mizuho estimated.
“While a reduction in reciprocal tariffs helps reduce recession/demand destruction risk, we point out that the auto tariffs are sector specific, not subject to individual 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:country trade negotiations,” UBS said. “In our view, they are lꦏ𒆙ikely to remain for the foreseeable future.”
Trade Policies May Usher in 'New Era' for Auto Industry
Sector-specific tariffs will likely add an average of $5,000 to car costs and depress domestic demand by 9%, according to UBS analysts, who factored in the current 25% tariff on cars and the 25% import tax 🧔on parts slated to go into effect early next month. The trade policies may usher in “a new era” for the U.S. auto industry, UBS said.
“Production disruptions are likely...and 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:supply chains that were set up to be optimized over decades may need to be reimagined," said U🌃BS.
Tariffs may also reduce General Motors’ (GM) domestic annual revenue by 4% and Rivian Automotive’s (RIVN) by 3.5%, Mizuho estimated. Both Mizuho and UBS lowered their price targets for GM and Rivian's stock, along with several auto sup🌸pliers.
General Motors fell 4%, and Rivian shares declined 2.6% on Thursday.