Key Takeaways
- Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note briefly passed the 5% mark Monday for the first time since 2007.
- The 10-year note is used by lenders and bond issuers as a gauge for pricing loans and debt.
- The Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" rhetoric is leading to a consistent selloff of the 10-year Treasury note and rising rates have made bonds and money-market accounts stiffer competition to stocks.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note surpassed 5% briefly Monday before retreating, with U.S. stocks moving in the oppositꦉe direction.
It marked the first time since July 2007 that the 10-year note, used by lenders and bond issuers as a gauge for pricing loans and debt, topped that key threshold.
The 10-year yield rose as high as 5.02% in early trading before tumbling to 4.84% by 4:20 p.m. Eastern Time. U.S. stocks traded in inverse fashion, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% in early trading before rebounding and gaining as much as 0.8% later in Monday's trading session.
Caps Extended Treasury Market Selloff
An array of factors have led to a consistent selloff of the 10-year Treasury note in the past several months. At the top of the list: The 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Federal Reserve has said it plans to maintain interest rates "higheꦐr for longer" as it seeks to restrain inflation that has remained more persistent this fall than many had hoped.
Since plunging April 6 to 3.31% in the wake of turmoil in the global banking industry stemming from unrealized balance sheet losses, the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:10-year yield has climbed steadily to its highest level since before the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Before today's pullback, it had surged 91 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:basis points since the beginning of September.
The 10-year note's rising yield has forced investors to reassess the conventio🌃nal wisdom that has prevailed through much of the past 10-15 years.
For much ꦅof that time, Treasurys offered a stable way for investors to reduce risk in their investment portfolios, while stocks offered the most attractive returns. But now, rising rates have given investors a way to generate more income from bonds and money-market accounts, giving stocks more competition.
Big Investor Helps Force Yield Retreat
Meanwhile, a key Treasury buyer who helped force the yield's retreat Monday appeared to do so not out of optimism—at least for the U.S. economy.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman, who heads hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, said Monday he covered a 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:short position against U.S. Treasurys. Ackman disclosed the bet 🌸in early August when he surmised long-term Treasury yields would move higher.
Monday morning, though, Ackman claimed in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that "there is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates." So he closed out the short position by purchasing Treasurys, helping push yields lower.
"The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests," he said.
If so, the Fed potentially may have to reconsider how long it plans to maintain its current benchmark policy lending rate of 5.25%-5.50%. Based on implied probabilities of 30-day Fed Funds futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the majority of traders don't expect the Fed to start cutting that rate until June 2024.